Because I know the typical knee jerk reaction to my proposal would be “gosh, our neighborhood would be so unsafe without streetlights”, I did a little analysis of the crime rates in Oceanside as a whole vs within the RDO neighborhood.
That analysis shows crime is far down in RDO since the lights were taken down, details below.
Methodology
I noticed the Oceanside Police website had an incomplete set of data for crime, broken down by type and by neighborhood, for small parts of each year.
I emailed them to ask if they had similar data – complete – for the period of 2007 through 2012, and discovered that under the Freedom of Information Act they are required to provide such data on request.
They were very nice about it, prepared the documents, and had them waiting for me at the City Clerk’s office. Scanned copies of the documents they provided are below.
I can’t embed a table here for some reason but it is in the spreadsheet labelled “My Analysis” below. The “Summary” tab is what you want.
Since the lights were generally taken down at the end of 2009/beginning of 2010, I decided I’d look at the crime levels and compare the total crime level from a three year period before and after the lights went down.
Accordingly, the summary tab sums the crime totals for two periods – 2007 through 2009, and 2010 through 2014.
Results
From this analysis, we can see that the overall crime level in Oceanside is down 6%. Let’s take a minute to pat ourselves (and our police) on the back for that.
Meanwhile, the crime level in Rancho Del Oro is down far in excess of this – a total of 20% lower during 2010 to date than it was in 2007-2009.
Crime is down very significantly in every category except “armed robbery.” That’s certainly not good, no idea what to attribute that to. We’d have to talk to the police to see if any of these armed robberies took place in the streets.
Now…. if we say this drop in crime is actually a result of streetlight removal then we could conclude the most effective crime control program the city could implement would be to remove the streetlights everywhere, right?
But…. much as I’d like to keep the lights down I’m not willing to “spin the facts” so blatantly as to make that claim.
The most I’m willing to believe is what the facts say – that despite having no streetlights, crime is certainly not UP, so we can definitively say that lack of lights has not driven crime HIGHER.
So, when your neighbor says “but, it’s so dark, I’m afraid of crime!” tell them that fear has absolutely no basis in fact, and the actual statistics show exactly the opposite.
Just the facts, m’am.
My Spreadsheet
Oceanside Crime Statistics By Neighborhood 2007 to date
Oceanside Crime Statistics 2007
Oceanside Crime Statistics 2008
Oceanside Crime Statistics 2009
Oceanside Crime Statistics 2010
Oceanside Crime Statistics 2011
Oceanside Crime Statistics 2012
Oceanside Crime Statistics 2013
Oceanside Crime Statistics January- June 2014
Oceanside Crime Statistics July – December 2014
Outside Resources and LInks
Links below to additional resources and studies relating to crime, traffic accidents, and streetlights.
The Guardian July 29th 2015
Research published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health shows “Turning off street lights at night does not lead to more crime or traffic accidents”
FT Magazine August 7th, 2014
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a83510f2-3ae4-11e5-bbd1-b37bc06f590c.html
Studies done in England analyzed 14 years of data from 62 local authorities and the results “show no evidence of any association between reduced street lighting and night-time traffic accidents.”
“Another arm of the study looked at four years of crime data, focusing on offences statistically more likely to occur at night, such as burglary, car theft, robbery and assault. Again, there was no link between levels of crime and changes in street lighting.”
“…Again, there was no link between levels of crime and changes in street lighting.”
“…our findings show that by carefully assessing risks, street lighting can be reduced without an increase in car crashes and crime.”
“We’re well aware that it’s an emotive subject as many people believe that less lighting will put their personal safety at risk, but the research has shown that dimming street lights may actually reduce crime,”
Dark Sky Diary December 12th, 2011
https://darkskydiary.wordpress.com/2011/12/22/do-brighter-street-lights-make-you-safer-from-crime/
Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority Study 2000 reported “an increase of 21 percent in reported offenses between the pre- and post-period test.”
City of Santa Rosa study shows between 2009 and 2012 notes “the introduction of street lighting actually increased the occurrence of crime as the perpetrators could monitor their actions without the use of flashlights or other lighting tools which could highlight the individuals presence”
PBS Special July 5th 2012, “The City Dark”
http://www.pbs.org/pov/citydark/photo_gallery_background.php?photo=7#.Vik_YiuAsr4
“A case has also been made that offenders need lighting to detect potential targets and low-risk situations.”
The Atlantic “CityLab” February 12th, 2014
http://www.citylab.com/housing/2014/02/street-lights-and-crime-seemingly-endless-debate/8359/
London study in the mid 1980’s found “no evidence … to support the hypothesis that improved street lighting reduces reported crime.”
“Street lights enable criminals as much as they do their potential victims,”
http://www.celfosc.org/biblio/seguridad/atkins.pdf